CD
CADENCE DESIGN SYSTEMS INC (CDNS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Cadence delivered a strong Q1 2025: revenue $1.242B (+23% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $1.57 (+34% YoY), both above guidance; FY25 revenue and EPS guidance were raised modestly on stronger recurring revenue and bookings .
- Results beat Wall Street: Q1 revenue $1.242B vs $1.241B consensus* and non-GAAP EPS $1.57 vs $1.50 consensus*; Q4 2024 also beat on revenue and EPS* .
- Broad-based strength: IP +40% YoY, System Design & Analysis (SDA) >50% YoY, core EDA +16% YoY; hardware demand remains supply-constrained; backlog $6.4B and cRPO $3.2B support visibility .
- Stock reaction catalysts: raised FY25 outlook (non-GAAP EPS midpoint +$0.08), accelerating AI attach (Cerebrus ~50 new logos), and minimal tariff impact due to diversified hardware manufacturing and predominantly software mix .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- AI-led product momentum and broad-based demand: “We exceeded our guidance on all key financial metrics… 23% revenue growth and 34% increase in non-GAAP EPS” and raised FY25 outlook .
- Segment outperformance: IP revenue +40% YoY; SDA revenue >50% YoY; core EDA +16% YoY .
- Hardware strength and AI partnerships: strong hardware proliferation at hyperscalers; expanded NVIDIA partnership (Grace Blackwell; agentic AI with Llama Nemotron) .
- What Went Wrong
- China caution persists: despite a good start, guidance still assumes China flat for the year, reflecting prudence amid macro/trade risks .
- Hardware remains capacity-limited: demand outstrips production capacity; company is mitigating via diversified lines, but supply is still the limiter .
- Tariff uncertainty: management does not expect material impact given software mix and diversified manufacturing, but it remains a monitored headwind .
Financial Results
Revenue, EPS and Margins (sequential trend and Q1 vs estimates)
- YoY: Q1 revenue +23% YoY; non-GAAP EPS +34% YoY (vs Q1 2024) .
- Beat/Miss: Q1 revenue and EPS both beat consensus; Q4 2024 revenue and EPS also beat consensus* .
Segment/Category Mix (percent of revenue)
- Q1 2025 growth by business: IP +40% YoY; SDA >50% YoY; core EDA +16% YoY .
Selected KPIs
Guidance Changes
Why raised: management cited stronger recurring revenue bookings and Q1 outperformance that carries through the year; guidance assumes export controls remain similar; tariff-related expense modestly higher but manageable .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategy and demand: “We haven't seen any shifts in customer behavior… customers are investing in their next-generation designs… Our ratable software business model, strong Q1 exit backlog and… AI-driven product innovations… provide resilience and excellent visibility” .
- Financial posture: “We repurchased more Cadence shares than initially planned in Q1… We are raising our 2025 revenue and EPS outlook” .
- Tariffs and supply chain: “Software and services are not subject to tariffs… we have multiple manufacturing lines in U.S. and outside U.S.… we don't believe… tariffs will have [an] effect on our hardware business” .
- Hardware demand: “Hardware revenue is limited by our production capacity because demand continues to outstrip our ability to supply” .
Q&A Highlights
- China outlook: Strong design activity, but guide assumes China flat for 2025 out of prudence .
- Tariff exposure: Minimal given software mix and diversified hardware manufacturing footprint inside and outside U.S. .
- Hardware capacity/pricing: Demand exceeds capacity; diversified lines (incl. Mexico and other locations) mitigate risk .
- Licensing/cloud model with GPUs: Transitioning to richer cloud SaaS offerings; packaging hardware + software (e.g., Millennium) while maintaining traditional term licensing .
- Intel opportunity: Sees room for share gains as Intel re-engages ecosystem; discussions underway .
- Foundation IP acquisition: Arm Artisan deal announced; explicitly excluded from guidance .
- Agentic AI deployment: Initial focus on verification (SimAI), digital implementation (Cerebrus), packaging/PCB (Allegro X AI), and analog migration .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025: Revenue $1.242B vs $1.241B consensus*; non-GAAP EPS $1.57 vs $1.50 consensus* — both beats .
- Q4 2024: Revenue $1.356B vs $1.347B consensus*; non-GAAP EPS $1.88 vs $1.82 consensus* — both beats .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Where estimates may adjust: upward bias to FY25 non-GAAP EPS and revenue given recurring revenue beat/flow-through and improved OI&E range, partially offset by slightly higher GAAP tax rate assumption .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Cadence’s AI-led product cycle is driving broad growth (IP +40%, SDA >50%, core EDA +16% YoY), with Cerebrus adoption and hyperscaler hardware proliferation underpinning multi-quarter momentum .
- The business remains resilient: 80% recurring revenue (company target), $6.4B backlog and $3.2B cRPO support raised FY25 outlook and visibility .
- Hardware demand outpaces supply; near-term upside exists if capacity increases, but management’s diversified manufacturing limits tariff and supply chain risk .
- Macro/China caution is embedded (assumed flat), providing potential upside if demand in China accelerates; export control/tariff assumptions remain a watch item .
- Strategic M&A broadens TAM: Arm Artisan Foundation IP brings foundational libraries/compilers into the portfolio (closing 2H25, not in guidance) .
- Q2 2025 guide implies continued strength (rev $1.25–$1.27B; non-GAAP EPS $1.55–$1.61); beats in recurring revenue tend to carry through subsequent quarters .
- Near-term trading setup: positive skew from raised FY25 guide and AI narrative reinforcement; watch for hardware delivery cadence, China policy headlines, and timing of Foundation IP close .
Additional Relevant Press Releases in Q1 2025
- Cadence to acquire Arm Artisan Foundation IP business (definitive agreement; expected close Q3 2025) .
- Industry-first DDR5 12.8Gbps MRDIMM Gen2 memory IP system solution for AI/HPC/data centers .
- Expanded NVIDIA collaboration on Grace Blackwell and agentic AI for engineering and science (Llama Nemotron Reasoning Model) .
Footnote: Values marked with an asterisk (*) are consensus estimates retrieved from S&P Global.